Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. He cares about the American people.. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. We have become so divided. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. By Cara Ding. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. But according to the. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. He pissed off a lot of people. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. "If. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. . When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Its just not that great, Paul said. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. To accept cookies, click continue. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Blaine County. I hope.. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. He loves this country. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. I believe in a time cycle. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Weve never done that before.. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. I quit voting once out of the union.. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. About The Author. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. SACRAMENTO . Were a service industry-oriented area. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Right now, its horrible. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. The counties are also mostly small and rural. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Republican Gov. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. 0:00 0:00. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. That is, until this year. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Nothing is free, Hawker said. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. This is a high farming community.. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I dont watch TV. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Youre not getting anybody perfect. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. I just want Trump in. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Port Clinton, Ohio. Im not even sure what direction were going.. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. I kind of keep in my bubble. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. He says hell vote for Trump. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. 2016 Trump. We were as far down to five cooks last year. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. He considers Trump pro-life. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. We dont want it, she said. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Theres too much corruption. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Its horrible. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. He is his own worst enemy.. This claim is basically absurd. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Im not happy with either party. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. He says Democratic Gov. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Two states have announced recounts. Required fields are marked *. I dont listen to the news. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We believe that there are two main reasons. This includes personalizing content and advertising. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Its just stupid, she said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. It will cycle through. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Its crazy. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes.
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