Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). All Rights Reserved. Charities & not-for-profit. conducted. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". About; Social . As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Which party will you vote for? As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. @BritainElects. Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. We will not share your email address with any third parties. Energy & utilities. 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As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. Notable recent election polls The poll for the Sun found. and given the options of "Yes" and "No". Britain Elects. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. These levels peaked at just under 40% in the late 1980s, the time that the poll tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . Question asked. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 10:18. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. In all polls the dont knows are removed. The YouGov polling for The Times also suggests widespread public dissatisfaction with the government's economic plan. conservative party Labour Party With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. All Rights Reserved. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. YouGov found . Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Related: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Five missions focused on fixing the fundamentals, says Starmer ahead of major speech, The decline and fall of the one nation Conservative. A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. Much of the YouGov poll's Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour - double that of a week ago. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Question asked is stated in notes field. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Topic . The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. . The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. It's Andrew's Previews for. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. Should the public's feeling remain largely down. The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. The pollster found. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. @britainelects. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds. Company number: SC669393. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes.
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